Late-October 2024 Newsletter
DEMS SHATTER TV AD RECORDS FOR STATE HOUSE: ACE IN THE HOLE OR LIGHTING MONEY AFLAME? A Gongwer News Service analysis of data from AdImpact, which tracks advertising, shows that Democrats spent $9.5 million across 23 seats in 2022 compared to $6.2 million by Republicans on 22 seats. As of this week, spending so far and reservations for Democratic candidates is $25.6 million to $5.1 million for the Republicans across 14 seats. It appears the national funders who poured millions into the Michigan Senate races in 2022 reallocated those funds into the House races for 2024. The most dramatic strategic change is that Democrats have targeted the extra resources into expensive broadcast advertising in the Detroit television market this year. In 2022, there were no broadcast ads in the Detroit market for the House. There are 56 House districts that fully or partially sit within the Detroit market, meaning an ad for a House race is only relevant for 1/56 of those watching. Republicans this year have avoided the expensive Detroit market and instead targeted their broadcast advertising on six districts outside of the Detroit market where advertising is cheaper and dollars go further. Additionally, because nearly half the Democratic spending is coming from the Michigan Democratic Party, the actual advantage in ads is not as lopsided as the dollars would make it seem. Ads purchased by candidate committees or their caucus PACs are cheaper and carry greater weight. Though it’s still a decided Democratic advantage. From a gross ratings standpoint, the measure of how many times an ad actually airs, Democrats have a decided edge in five of these six races, the one exception being the 103rd District race between Rep. Betsy Coffia (D-Traverse City) and Republican Lisa Trombley of Traverse City. In total across the six races, as of this week Democrats had 35,164 gross ratings points to 22,846 for the Republicans, according to AdImpact. That is a big change from 2022 when statewide, Republicans had 21,616 gross ratings points to 21,389 for the Democrats in House races. Republicans aired nearly double the ads in the Coffia seat in 2022 as Democrats based on gross ratings points and had the edge in the 109th District seat won by now-Rep. Jenn Hill (D-Marquette) but lost both. Democrats have spent and reserved a total of $15 million on Detroit broadcast television for seven candidates. It’s an astounding outlay given the small nature of a House seat and the challenge of competing against the blitz of commercials in the presidential, U.S. Senate and 7th and 10th U.S. House districts. "How many people are they reaching because it’s one big media market in southeast Michigan? Hopefully that’ll be a good decision, it won’t be confusion for people where they see a whole bunch of candidates on these commercials," said former House Minority Leader Chris Greig, a Democrat, during a recent episode of the MichMash podcast. "I think it’s almost to the point where you have to do it. We’ll see. But I think it’s digital that’s what’s taken over because you can target it so much better." Greig said she is interested to see if the Democratic advantage on broadcast in the Detroit market helps with straight ticket voting. Former House Speaker Jase Bolger, a Republican, said during the same MichMash episode that it’s a big outlay of cash to reach such a small slice of the viewership. "If you’re buying TV, you’re buying to advertise in 50 House seats," he said, quipping that for what the Democrats have spent in the Detroit market they might be able to buy the TV station in Marquette. Bolger also noted the challenge of getting an ad for a state House candidate to stand out amid the noise. Data from AdImpact shows that as of Friday, total spending on the presidential, U.S. Senate, Michigan Supreme Court and 7th U.S. House and 10th U.S. House races in the Detroit market since Labor Day totals $217.5 million with a combined 211,087 gross ratings points. With an average of about 2,268 gross ratings points behind each state House ad in the Detroit market, that means only one out of 100 political commercials – at best – is for a single state House race. "Is that spending scary? Absolutely," Bolger said. "Are Democrats going to spend way more than Republicans for the state House this time? You bet. But there are a lot of people who make a decision on a state House level because they know somebody, they like somebody, they met somebody." 189 TAX INCREASES, 12 MARIJUANA PROPOSALS ON NOVEMBER BALLOTS Voters also will decide whether to authorize marijuana business in 12 cities or townships. A Gongwer News Service analysis of ballots across the state found a total of 189 proposed property tax increases and 208 proposal property tax renewals for school districts, local governments and other taxing authorities. There are 30 proposed tax increases for roads, an increasingly popular option among cities and townships given the lack of action at the state level to increase funding for local roads. There are also 29 school bond proposals among 28 school districts seeking voter approval for borrowing to build or renovate school buildings and raise property taxes to repay the bonds. Among the largest ones: L’Anse Creuse Public Schools (Macomb): $188.7 million Voters have increasingly rejected school bond proposals, particularly in more rural, conservative areas, in recent years. Whether that pattern continues will be closely watched. There’s a larger than usual number of requests for new sinking funds – millages school districts can seek for maintenance, infrastructure, transportation, technology and security needs. Voters in 18 school districts will decide whether to authorize new millages. Of the 40 proposed tax increases for public safety services, 18 are for fire protection, seven are for emergency medical services, six are for fire protection and EMS, five are for police, two are for 9-1-1, one is for emergency management, and one covers all public safety functions. There’s also nine millage increase proposals for libraries, 17 for parks and recreation and 10 for senior services. Voters in five townships and five cities will decide whether to authorize marijuana businesses in their communities: Bedford Township in Monroe County, Clawson, Howell, Kenockee Township in St. Clair County, Lathrup Village (which has a two-part vote), Lodi Township in Washtenaw County, Mason, Muskegon Heights, Niles Township in Berrien County and Tobacco Township in Gladwin County. Royal Oak Township in Oakland County will vote on whether to prohibit marijuana businesses. For a complete and sortable list of all proposals, go to Gongwer’s Millage Monitor, which provides a tally of all types of proposals and includes an archive back to 2018. The monitor will be updated following the election to show which proposals passed and which ones failed. TOP 10 STATE HOUSE DISTRICTS LIKELY TO FLIP Both Democrats and Republicans have reallocated resources as Democrats seek to hold onto their 56-54 majority, and Republicans scrounge to find two seats they can flip red to seize control. Democrats have outspent Republicans on television, radio and digital/streaming, $17.3 million to $3.85 million between the August primary and Tuesday in 13 key districts, according to data from the AdImpact tracking firm. That’s an astounding gap though $9.6 million of the gap stems from Democrats pouring $10.6 million so far into seven House seats in the Detroit media market to $1 million for the Republicans. Democrats have paid for expensive Detroit broadcast advertising. Republicans have not. In six seats elsewhere in the state, the Democratic advertising advantage at this point is $6.7 million to $2.8 million, still lopsided, but more manageable for the Republicans. That’s especially so when looking at gross ratings points instead of dollars. Much of the Democratic dollar advantage is from Michigan Democratic Party spending, but those dollars don’t go as far as funds from candidates and the caucus PACs. In these six races, Democratic ad spending has yielded 35,164 gross ratings points so far to 22,846 for the Republicans, meaning that while total Democratic spending is 239% greater than total Republican spending, the actual ad advantage is 54 percent more. Of course, television is far from everything. There’s mail and the bread and butter of a state House campaign: door-to-door work. This list might look different if ranking only based on environment or only based on candidate quality. If only environment mattered, the order might be 58, 27, 55, 54, 61, 44, 109, 31, 46 and 103. If we ranked based on the political strengths of the challenger, the order might be 83, 46, 109, 44, 58, 54, 103, 27, 31, 55. But in the end, it’s a mixture of both. With that, here’s our latest list: 1. (UNCHANGED) CHURCHES, LINTING TO THE WIRE: There is a fundamental reason why we have ranked the race between Rep. Jaime Churches (D-Wyandotte) and Republican Rylee Linting of Wyandotte in the 27th District number one for 10 weeks: Churches has the district where former President Donald Trump did the best of any seat held by a first-term Democrat. That hasn’t changed, and thus, this race remains at the top. Trump won this seat by four points in 2020 and eight points in 2016. When Churches won her first term in 2022, Governor Gretchen Whitmer carried the district by 10.5 points. There could be 10,000 people voting in two weeks who didn’t vote in 2022 and are seeing Churches’ name on a ballot for the first time. Downriver voters, however, have a long history of splitting their tickets, and Republicans quietly acknowledge Churches has run a good incumbency program. Linting is a political newcomer, and Downriver voters tend to like their incumbents, provided they know them. Ideology is less important. Democrats have hammered Linting on abortion. 2. (UNCHANGED) IS IT SHANNON’S OR ROBINSON’S NEIGHBORHOOD? There’s a fundamental reason why this race for the 58th District has sat at No. 2 on our list for 10 weeks. Shannon has the district where Trump did the best of any seat held by a Democrat. We continue to rank Shannon a notch below Churches because unlike Churches, he’s won election three times, including in 2020 when Trump won his (slightly different shaped) district. Trump carried this seat by 6 points in 2020 and 10 points in 2016. The assessment of Republican challenger Ron Robinson of Utica depends on who’s doing the talking. Some say he has hit the doors hard and positioned himself well. Other sources say it’s not clear that’s the case. It’s worth noting in the "who’s in bigger trouble, Churches or Shannon" debate that Democratic ads (both spent and future reservations) total $3.1 million for Shannon and $1.7 million for Churches. That Democrats have spent $2 million so far and have another million queued up speaks volumes about their concern level. But Shannon has overcome top of the ticket drag before. 3. (UNCHANGED) DEM CONFIDENCE HIGH ON MAHONEY OVER SCHMALTZ: Based on the confidence emanating from Democratic ranks, if they were drawing up this list, they might make Rep. Kathy Schmaltz No. 1. Jackson Mayor Daniel Mahoney was one of the stronger recruits of the cycle for either party. The 46th District is about as close to a 50/50 district as it gets. In 2020, Trump carried it by 0.26 percentage point while U.S. Sen. Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Township) won the seat by 2 points. In 2016, Trump had a 1.8-point victory margin. So, this should be a level playing field where candidate quality helps. Republicans have battered Mahoney with a series of ads on his record and other issues. There are two big unknowns owing to Democrats abandoning this seat in 2022 and Schmaltz getting a free pass: how exactly does this district perform under the 2021 map that paired Democratic Jackson and Chelsea with Republican suburbs and rural areas in between, and how good a candidate is Schmaltz. Had this been the matchup in 2022, with Whitmer winning the district by 11 points, it’s easy to see how Mahoney would have won. Democrats have hit Schmaltz hard on abortion and now with a new ad about her votes against legislation expanding the statute of limitations in sexual assault cases. Republicans have scoffed at the Democratic TV spending in the Detroit market, but another point in Mahoney’s favor is the yawning chasm in TV spending in this district in the much cheaper Lansing market – $1.8 million by or on behalf of Mahoney to $633,000 by or on behalf of Schmaltz with another $800,000 reserved for Mahoney still to air to $250,000 for Schmaltz. This is one of the seats though where the Democratic Party ad dollars don’t go as far. Mahoney still has a big advantage in gross ratings points over Schmaltz but it’s not three-to-one, more like 58 percent. 4. (UP FROM 6) REPUBLICANS PUTTING MORE PRESSURE ON HAADSMA: The 44th District has rocketed up the list from No. 9 in September. We’ve elevated it for two reasons: signs of continued Republican ascendancy in Calhoun County and massive spending increases on advertising by both parties. Haadsma, as a third-term incumbent seeking a fourth term, is facing a district that continues to shift toward the Republicans. Trump won it twice but by 1.34 points in 2016 and just 1.14 points in 2020. It’s notable that – unlike the Churches and Shannon districts – Trump didn’t have much reduction in his victory margin here between 2016 and 2020. That means a 2016-style environment where Trump wins or comes close to winning statewide may not make the difference it would with Churches and Shannon. However, there is concern in Democratic circles that Trump may perform better here this time. If that’s the case, it puts more pressure on Haadsma and opens the door for Republican Steven Frisbie of Battle Creek. It’s also worth noting that Haadsma is facing his toughest challenger in a while. He beat the same Republican in 2018, 2020 and 2022, and that candidate was not well regarded. Spending by or on behalf of Haadsma on advertising is $1.7 million since the primary to $544,000 for Frisbie. Another $800,000 is reserved for Haadsma compared to $300,000 for Frisbie, who currently at $882,564 spent or reserved in advertising leads all Republicans, even Schmaltz. That says a lot about the opportunity Republicans sense. 5. (DOWN FROM 4) HILL, BOHNAK GOING THE DISTANCE: This race in the 109th District between Rep. Jenn Hill (D-Marquette) and former television meteorologist Karl Bohnak of Negaunee remains competitive as ever. We’re only moving it down because of the combination of spending and favorable environment for the Republicans in the Haadsma district. From an environment standpoint, this is a 50/50 district. It’s also one where Republicans have fared the same as Charlie Brown when Lucy holds and then yanks away the football. Marquette is a Democratic city and while the outlying areas have become Republican, this isn’t like other U.P. districts where it didn’t take much for them to flip solidly Republican. This seat sits where it sits because Bohnak was a great recruit, someone whose years on television forecasting the weather put him in residents’ homes every day. Republicans have never fielded a strong candidate here, so this is a big change. Advertising spending is relatively even here, $1.1 million spent or reserved for Hill and $864,617 for Bohnak. The Republicans will take it. Should Hill fall, there will be a lot of questions as to why Democrats spent $1.6 million trying to take out Rep. Jamie Thompson (R-Brownstown) in a Trump +7 district. 6. (UP FROM 7) IFFY ENVIRONMENT MOVES MILLER UP: Exiting the top five with Rep. Reggie Miller (D-Van Buren Township) in the 31st House District, the likelihood of seats flipping declines. But this is a presidential year with Trump on the ballot in an expected close race and we could see more voters come out of the woodwork. So, Miller, despite not seeing as much spending from Republicans as some other seats, moves up to number six. This is because it is a (sort of) Downriver seat where there is some uncertainty on what voters show up. Still, President Joe Biden and 2016 candidate Hillary Clinton both narrowly won this seat in 2016 and 2020, respectively. This race, as we’ve mentioned before, is also a rematch of the 2022 contest against Dale Biniecki of Raisinville Township. There was considerable debate on if the 31st should be ranked above or below the 103rd. We decided the environment is more favorable for a potential upset in the 31st for the reasons described above compared to the 103rd, even with the considerable spending Republicans are doing in the northern Michigan seat. Democrats have outspent Republicans here, $1.3 million to $179,000, so far with another $500,000 queued up, so the Democrats don’t appear to be taking this one for granted. 7. (DOWN FROM 5) COFFIA STILL IN THE MIX: What we have said about this seat from the beginning remains true: the top-of-the-ticket environment in the 103rd House District does not seem to support the unseating of Rep. Betsy Coffia (D-Traverse City). But, it is still a seat Coffia won by a razor thin margin in 2022 and Republicans are spending hard for Lisa Trombley of Traverse City. Despite the trending in the Democrats’ direction, it is still a contender. Trombley’s ads and mail here are interesting: she is encouraging Republicans to vote early. After attacking Coffia about holding out on voting for a financial disclosure requirement, she moved on to a television ad where she calls Coffia "nice" but says Democratic policies are bad for the state. Coffia is hitting hard on the environment and abortion. She also uncorked a bruising ad against Trombley using her words against her. Trombley flubbed at a forum and said "northern Virginia" instead of "northern Michigan." Trombley is a Michigan native but worked near Washington, D.C., for decades before retiring to Traverse City. That could be a damaging mistake in the 103rd, where residents are no strangers to those moving into the area from out of state. Republicans in raw dollars have spent the second most on advertising here of the 13 competitive districts, though still have been outspent, $697,000 to $519,000. Should Republicans come up short of majority and lose here, there will be a lot of questions about why they dug in so deep. Yes, Coffia had the closest win of any state House race in 2022 but the trend in this district is clearly blue. 8. (UP FROM 10) DEMS DRAMATICALLY UP THE ANTE AGAINST STEELE: Democrats must see something in the 54th House District where they are trying to unseat Rep. Donni Steele (R-Orion) with Democrat Shadia Martini of Bloomfield Hills. Outside groups have also gotten involved in spending for Martini. In a major move, the Michigan Democratic Party pulled $1.3 million in advertising reservations from the Thompson district and reallocated it to help Martini. Two new ads launched attacking Steele this week (see related story). This doubled the money spent or reserved to help Martini in the district to $2.7 million. Republicans have just $219,000 spent or reserved for Steele. The environment in Oakland County is likely a positive for Democrats. It is a rematch, and Steele is now an incumbent, a benefit for Steele. But Democrats are hoping to get some more magic out of Oakland, a one-time Republican stronghold that has moved fiercely to the left since 2016. Vice President Kamala Harris will need to run up the score here to provide some lift for Martini. A two-point win in the district, like Biden’s 2020 margin, won’t cut it. 9. (DOWN FROM 8) STEADY AS SHE GOES IN 61ST: The story for Rep. Denise Mentzer of Mount Clemens hasn’t changed much since earlier this month. Republicans aren’t spending heavily – or even lightly, for that matter – for Robert Wojtowicz of Mount Clemens. Democrats and Republicans appear to agree she matches the district well and is doing the right things. It’s a seat in Macomb and in a Trump year, it stays on the board. But spending is incredibly lopsided for the Democrats and it’s hard to see anything shake loose. Democrats continue to pour money into advertising here, perhaps mindful that this was a Trump +5 district in 2016 (though it was a much smaller Trump margin in 2020). Democrats have spent more on advertising here than any other district though if the current reservations hold, Shannon will top Mentzer. 10. (DOWN FROM 9) GOP REMAINS HOPEFUL WITH BRANN: Although Republicans remain optimistic about former Rep. Tommy Brann of Wyoming against Rep. John Fitzgerald (D-Wyoming) in the 83rd House District, the environment here favors Democrats. Harris is expected to roll in the district, which was Biden +10 in 2020. It’s very hard to imagine Brann overcoming that kind of tide. However, Brann never fit the mold of a traditional Republican and his status as a popular former business owner in the district keeps him relevant. He is also working. Many of the Kent County seats have dropped off the radar and are not competitive heading into November. Democrats admit this one is close. While Fitzgerald is working with a positive environment, Republican spending and enthusiasm won’t let him completely run away with it. This one may come down to straight ticket voting. Brann needs voters to review individual races to have a chance. Spending here is relatively light for a Grand Rapids area seat, $612,000 in advertising by or on behalf of Fitzgerald since the primary compared to $270,000 for Brann. DCD IS A FULL-SERVICE, BI-PARTISAN, MULTI-CLIENT LOBBYING FIRM REMEMBER ALL OF DCD’S SERVICES: ***Talk to us about REFERENDUMS & BALLOT INITATIVES*** **WORK WITH US ON LOCAL LOBBYING & DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS** ***CAMPAIGN SIGNATURE GATHERING*** ***ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT FUNDING: GRANTS – CDBG’S – BROWNFIELD – TIF’S*** ***FEDERAL, STATE, & LOCAL REGULATORY CHALLENGES*** OUR TEAM LEVERAGES OUR MUNICIPAL CONTACTS AND ASSETS AND HELPS INDIVIDUALS AND COMPANIES NAVIGATE THROUGH ANY REGULATORY ISSUES! WE SPEAK THE DUAL LANGUAGE OF BUSINESS & GOVERNMENT THAT HELP YOU TRANSLATE YOUR VISION INTO REALITY! ARTICLES OF POLITICAL INTEREST: Michigan Supreme Court Majority Up for Grabs as 4 Candidates Seek 2 Seats Trump & Harris Urge Michigan to Vote Early. Agreement Ends There Michigan Per Capita Income Lags Again; "It’s the lowest we’ve ever been…" One Big Thing is Missing from GOP Campaign to Reclaim Michigan’s State House: Trump Michigan Muslims ‘Divided’ Over the Election, Slam Biden’s Handling of the War in Gaza Marijuana News, Updates, & Articles of Interest THE DCD MARIJUANA TEAM: YOUR COMPETITIVE EDGE! DCD continues to exist as the premier resource helping municipalities navigate the waters of cannabis policy. We would be more than happy to answer any questions you may have regarding medical or recreational cannabis policy, procedure, and more. DCD is available for presentations to municipal boards, for one-on-one meetings, and for consultations. 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